Should We Be Stunned the Chiefs Lost Big?
The Numbers Say No
The Chiefs didn’t just lose Super Bowl LIX, they were destroyed. To see a team coming off two consecutive championships fall behind 34-0 and lose 40-22, left many experts in shock.
Although they rolled to a 15-2 record, Kansas City was never the team to beat this season. The team’s underlying metrics told a vastly different story.
Living on the Edge
I emphasize the need to look beyond won-lost record, and the Chiefs were a great example why it pays to do this. They finished just 11th in the NFL in point differential (+59) during the regular season. They placed 10th in Sports Reference’s Simple Rating System and 11th in EPA (Expected Points Added). My Sportslytx rankings had the Chiefs ranked ninth before the Super Bowl took place.
The Chiefs did not have elite numbers. So how did they become a slight favorite to win a third straight Super Bowl? They went 12-0 in games decided by one possession this season, and had won their last 17 one-score contests. Some saw this as proof that the Chiefs always “find a way to win.” However, contrary to what gets shared in the mainstream sports media, winning close games is not a trait of elite teams. Most great teams win a far higher percentage of blowout games than close ones.
Advanced metrics and unbiased ratings project outcomes far better than won-lost record. The Chiefs success in close games, while impressive, but was impacted by luck as well as their strong play in clutch situations. That’s not a sustainable trend, but a statistical anomaly.
Meanwhile, the Eagles Were Steamrolling Opponents
While the Chiefs were escaping one close game after another, the Eagles lost just one game all season by more than three points – and that happened way back in September on the road against a solid Buccaneers club (33-16). So many people got caught up in all the three-peat talk, that this fact got overlooked.
Philly dominated opponents this season, outscoring them by 160 points, second in the NFL to only the Lions. That topped the Chiefs (+59) by over 100 points! In the previous 40 NFL postseasons, teams holding an edge of 100 or more points in point differential had gone 87-36 – a 70.7 winning percentage!
The Eagles also handled postseason foes with ease, beating them by an average of 17 points per game – the fourth-highest margin this century – before and after the Super Bowl took place.
Led by the amazing Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs had shown an ability to raise their level of play in the postseason. However, this season they underwhelmed in their first playoff game against a mediocre Texans team. Although KC won 23-14, the advanced metrics showed that Houston performed better by a slight margin. While the Chiefs stepped up against a superb Bills team in the AFC Championship Game, they still had to eke out a 32-29 win.
Super Bowl LIX demonstrates why player and team trends from previous seasons mean less than what happens during the current season. The Chiefs were a good team that caught a lot of breaks this season. The Eagles were a strong club that showed it throughout the long regular season.
Were you stunned by the outcome? What stood out on Super Bowl Sunday?